There has been Energy transition from the use of Coal to Fossil Fuel, Gas and the Renewables. So Energy Transition is not new to the world.
Why is it that it is now when African countries are discovering Oil in a commercial quantity that the world wants to abandon it and stitch to Renewables. This is the time for African Leaders to stand firm and maximize potentials with regards to Crude Oil production to develop Africa as the west did.
Asia was named Asian Tigers because they stood form not minding the discouragement involved and pursued the development of Asia with Fossil Fuel.
The most glaring of these adjustments are encapsulated in the much vaunted ENERGY TRANSITION and the almost single minded pursuit of achieving Net Zero (Carbon Neutral, Climate Neutral) by 2050.
Recall the IPCC had concluded in AR 4, 2007 the need for net zero CO2 by 2050 to remain consistent with 1.5 degree C.
Since humanity came into its own through the discovery of the first source of Energy, FIRE, There has been an Energy Transition.
Due to Preference, the ease of combustibility of the fuel and the ease of production, transportation, handling, & use condition: In this piece, Energy Frontier takes a look at the Geopolitics of Energy Transitions.
An eye opener and the Lesson from the transition
“In the move from one dominant Fuel to another the fuel that is substituted does not go away, it fades gradually as its role in the energy mix progressively diminishes taking lessons from the coal to petroleum transition, it takes 50-60yrs for this to happen and as prices fall only fuel producers that adopt best practices escape the ensuing destabilization -cheaper production costs keep one competitive and diversification of the Industry is a safety belt to upheaval”, said Chidi Ibe, a Professor of Oceanography and the Blue Economy/Energy Expert at the 12 Emmanuel Egbogah Legacy Lecture Series held in Emerald Energy Institute, University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State.
Decarbonization
Speaking on the theme: Climate Change and the Politics of Energy Transition, he noted, “In this First Energy Transition, despite what was known about pollution including its impacts on humans and the environment, Decarbonization was a distant consideration, if at all. When and how did the need to decarbonize become an existential issue, then a stampede towards a net zero emissions world largely without fossil fuels by 2050? Prof Ibe asked.
Lessons from Cop 26, Glasgow
COAL -India, Australia, China, S. Africa, Indonesia, Poland watered down pre-conference doomsday scenarios in regard to coal—- tepid statement about tamping down the use of coal PETROLEUM- pressure from petroleum producing giants Saudi Arabia, USA & the big international oil companies resulted in a wishy washy statement about stopping unwarranted subsidies on oil & gas. AGRICULTURE- only a fleeting glance despite 24% contribution to the GHG Burden – industrial countries own commercial agric. CCUS: are a suite of technologies that can help reduce reliance on fossil fuels & achieve net zero emissions but there was little appetite to explore these in Glasgow. Take 2 examples
New Platform Could Boost Development of Carbon Capturing Batt
Dr. Yunlong Zhao, a Senior Lecturer at Imperial College London &co-authors have published this August on Li CO2 batteries as a promising new type of battery that work by combining lithium and carbon dioxide; they not only store energy effectively but also offer a way to capture CO2 , potentially making a dual-contribution to the fight against climate change. But the novel technique can also be applied to other systems like metal-air batteries, fuel cells, and photo electrochemical cells.
More Efficiency in Fossil Fuel Use
If coal and natural gas power generation were 2% more efficient, then every year, there could be 460 million fewer tons of carbon dioxide released and 2 trillion fewer gallons of water used. A recent innovation by UIUC,USA, using a coating that is made with fluorinated diamond-like carbon, or F-DLC to the steam cycle used in fossil fuel power generation could achieve this.
Commenting on this advance, Nenad Miljkovic, a Professor of mechanical science & engineering at UIUC and the project lead. “The reality is that fossil fuels aren’t going away for at least 100 years,” He said “A lot of CO2 is going to be emitted before we get to a place where we can lean on renewables. If our F-DLC coating were adopted globally, it would noticeably curtail carbon emissions and water usage for the existing power infrastructure.”
Serious Co-Travellers?
GERMANY new coal station in 2019; New gas deals/Qatar for 25 years beginning 2025. NORWAY 31 oil companies with 60 production licenses for petroleum exploration acreages. USA – fresh from glasgow and claiming court order opened bid rounds for new acreages. Snapped up by Exxon Mobil and Chevron. New offers in Gulf of Mexico, UK –Delaying closures. New Coal Mine in Cumbria. No ICE ban by 2030.Hundreds of NEW exploration
EU & the Russia-Ukraine War
“We all watched how the European Union countries panicked as they faced with energy penury, they switched back to abandoned sources of energy like coal, diesel plants and nuclear just to escape the stranglehold of Russia & its geopolitical implications”, noted Prof Ibe.
“Was the WORLD no longer in peril from the continued use of these dirty and risky fuels? Why suddenly did they seem to abandon the rest of the world to a catastrophic future that they themselves had so elaborately painted? The Energy Expert asked.
Speaking on a Program By JOHN DEYFTERUS- CNN BUSINESS
“Taking a detached view: Clean energy is not a done deal by any means amid the billions promised for green ventures, China and US may have other plans and Russia ??? The Name of the game is GEOPOLITICS”, he maintained.
Take these Two: USA Versus China jostling for Supremacy
Every indication is that their struggle for supremacy would get in the way of orderly transition as presently envisaged. After finally shaking off 40 years of dependence on Arab Oil, there is no way the USA will give in to any semblance of control, direct or indirect, by China over their energy security (and by implication, economic lifeline)
The reason why and here is why
CHINA dominates the production of Lithium and RARE EARTHS which underpin the manufacture of most renewable technologies – from wind turbines to solar panels, to Battery electric cars where China is leading the global development, and exporting complete sets of technologies to the European Union. China also dominates the Supply market for renewables!
“The USA will not trade away the dominance and security that shale oil n gas have given them to enable her leap frog Saudi Arabia as the No 1 Oil Producer in the World for New Romance in Global Strategies & Targets in the PCA anchored on Dodgy International Solidarity. The above is very intriguing”, noted Prof Ibe.
It Has Happened Before
Recall the USA which had led the discussions leading to the adoption of the KYOTO PROTOCOL, refused to ratify the Treaty citing undue geopolitical advantage by Developing powers China, India and Brazil? Recall again, that after championing the PCA, the USA, under President Trump in 2017 pulled out from the agreement again citing unfair geopolitical advantage by Developing Powers that would threaten US economic dominance. Fortuitously, President Biden came into power & in 2021 restored USA adhesion.
Jostling a Surprise – No!
Because the first trigger to the world of renewables and alternative energy was steeped in Geo-politics which played out exactly half a century ago. Uk Minister of State for Energy Security & Net Zero was recalling this history on 5 Sept ‘23 as he opened the 50th Anniversary meeting of SPE Offshore Europe, OE, and the jostling for has remained ever after epitomized by the G20 vs G77 battles that played out on the shop floor as several Conference of Parties under the UNFCC rolled on –FRONT ROW SEA
Unusual event, the real trigger
An attack on Israel by Arab Armies on 6 Oct, Yom Kippur Day (The Yom Kipour War), which lasted 6 0ct – 25 October, 1973. Egyptian Army were headed towards Telaviv in a few days of battle when its Western allies provided intelligence to the Israelis that turned near defeat into Victory. The Arab Countries cried FOUL, even TREACHERY
Oil Boycott of The West
OAPEC March Meeting Vienna 197
THE REAL MCOY! By the time the boycott was called off Oil went $2.5- 12.5/ bbl threatening to bring the conveyor belts of production in the industrialized world to a screeching halt.
Things Would Never Be the Same Again
He further noted that 1973 there was OIL SHOCK. The 1970s oil crisis according to him knocked the wind out of the global economy and helped trigger a stock market crash, soaring inflation and high unemployment – ultimately leading to the fall of a UK government.
In The USA he Said, “In The USA “The 1973 “oil price shock”, with the accompanying 1973–74 stock market crash, was regarded as the first discrete event since the Great Depression to have a persistent effect on the US economy”.
On the Response to the 1973 Oil Shock
He noted that in response to the high oil prices of the 1970s, industrial nations took steps to reduce their dependence on OPEC oil. Electric utilities worldwide switched from oil to coal, natural gas, or nuclear power; & commercial exploration developed major nonOPEC oilfields in Siberia, Alaska, North Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
It’s The Economy , Stupid !
It was a knee jerk reaction by Industrial Countries to stabilize their individual & collective economies to the shock of the Boycott and hiked price
But Projecting Into The Future Industrial Nations Were Determined : 1) that never again would circumstances outside their control threaten their energy security and by corollary, their economy 2) conscious of the ballooning oil prices and the lack of the resource, petroleum, in their own backyards, they were to devote their attention to renewable and alternative energies as a lasting solution.
PUTTING MONEY WHERE THEIR MOUTHS ARE
They poured billions of Dollars into the quest for functional renewable energy technologies
The reliance on Petroleum as principal energy source had caused them pain & embarrassment in the past. They were not in a hurry to forget or the stakes they had very little to lose in letting go of petroleum, they had everything to gain The die was cast for fossil fuel.
An Unfortunate Distraction: the cheap oil of the 1980’s provoked by oil glut caused the industrialized countries to take their feet momentarily off the renewables accelerator pedal and went back to their FIRST LOVE — Fossil fuel
Lamentations: But as oil prices picked up again into the 2000s Industrialized Nations lamented the high cost of oil to their industrial production costs. By some twist of fate, new & substantial petroleum were confined to places deemed perilous& outside of their control (at least overtly. And this at a time their own oil & gas reserves were petering out. The Industrial Countries, worried that 1973 could happen again, returned their focus to Consolidating Renewable Energy Technologies and snuffing out Fossil fuels & made stunning progress. They milked this progress
A Happy Coincidence: Armed with their resolve, and confident of the progress in substituting conventional with renewable energies, Industrial countries muscled their way during the successive COPS under UNFCC and caused the discussions to pivot from reaching equitable and rational energy mix between conventional energy and renewables as the basis for energy security to the necessity for drastic actions to ”kill fossil fuels” It looked from the outside a happy coincidence of Climate Science and Technological Prowess . The truth is that it had a large dose of hard nosed deliberation and planning on their part – FRONT SEAT DIFFERENT STROKES.
While the industrialized countries negotiated during the successive COPs starting from 2010, they were conscious as always of a polarized World & had the benefit of history & recollection of how the oil boycott of 1973, as brief as it was, humbled and humiliated them and caused excessive Industrial Production costs resulting in economic pains.
In contrast, most people on the delegations of Developing (G77) countries especially African Countries came to these meetings with a naïve notion of a charitable world where everyone was his brother’s keeper. Had not even heard of the Yom Kipour War not to talk about the consequent oil boycott and thus succumbed to the Kill Fossil fuels campaign that was to be enshrined ultimately in the Paris Climate Agreement (2015).
WHY THE G-77 FAILED: Apart from a naïve world view, it was impossible for many countries of the G-77 to send experts to these meetings as many simply had no expertise or money.
Their negotiators often did not know if what was put to them was a fair compromise or a concession which they were being inveighed into making. Furthermore, It did not help that at this time, the G77 (or G77+China had become somewhat fragmented and found it difficult to present a common front. Many did not have petroleum resources and were at best indifferent to the outcome that bedeviled Petroleum
Recall that the fragmentation had started after COP 15 In Copenhagen the first time Developed countries pledged to put meaningful money offers on the Table( $30bn in 2010-12 & $100bn annually to 2020) to help Developing countries to align with international resolutions on Climate Change.
BACK TO THE PRESENT the global energy transition as presently conceived would mean that the world has to wean itself off dependency on fossil fuels that presently make up about 80% of the energy mix and ditch plans to either discover or dig up more fossil fuels.
The Problem is fossil fuels power our industries & Homes as well as provide raw materials for the manufacture of a vast array of products and goods (furniture to fertilizers, from tooth brush thru lipstick to medicines) even the renewable energy technologies depend on fossil fuels for their fabrication. Petroleum underpins our modern transportation a lot of services would grind to a halt without them TAKE TRANSPORTATION ! whereas Commuter Transportation can transit to electric rail or electric cars quickly, we have to face the inconvenient truth— we are a spoilt people hooked to ultra rapid international movement by AIR. Does anyone recall the solar plane in 2016.
It took 550 days to complete. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), touted as the only promising alternative to Jet fuel has only 0.10-0.15% of the market share – still waiting for take off! for container SHIPS, renewable energy is unable to power them across the world; bunker fuel also known as heavy fuel oil does.
Let’s take a look at this make believe world of net zero predicated on Clean renewable and alternative energy and flowing metaphorically with milk and Honey: It is not a stroll in the Park DISILLUSIONED ALREADY? He asked.
The Way forward
In the 1980s when the Asian Countries where steaming ahead, in their industrialization plans, there was a slight slump in global economy and the soothsayers predicted a decline in the rate of growth in intensity of solid minerals raw material use, which led to the coining of the term,” DEMATERIALIZATION”
It never happened, and the Asian Countries who held their nerve and resolve and rather increased their investments went on to smile all the way to the Bank and put their countries on a solid path to sustainable industrial development, so African countries should do likewise
